For one, the interest rate you are securing will most likely be at a higher amount.  For example, if you are shopping for a home and have determined that you will need a loan amount between $625,500 and $729,950 that loan will now be secured at a higher interest rate.  As of this article, a jumbo loan rate is about ½% higher than a conforming 30 year fixed rate according to Bankrate.com.

Another impact is that a loan over the $625,500 mark will require a down payment of at least 20%.  The option to put less than 20% down for loans between $625,500 and $729,950 will be no longer.

Both factors could mean weaker demand for homes in the high cost markets.  This eventually could lead to downward pressure on prices.

The Tri-Valley area has been a very interesting place to conduct real estate transactions over the last year. Not only is every transaction more difficult to complete, there are numerous outside influences impacting the real estate trends in the Tri-Valley.  I feel there are four primary factors that influenced Tri-Valley real estate in 2010 and these items will continue to impact the real estate market in the near future.  These four factors are the number of foreclosures/short sales in the market, interest rates, lending ability and inventory numbers. 

The wave of foreclosures/short sales has taken its toll this year on the market.  For most of the year in the Tri-Valley, the percentage of active homes that were foreclosures/short sales was between 40 and 50 percent at any given time.  In some specific subdivisions, those numbers were closer to 75 to 90 percent at times. For instance, in the Tassajara Creek, Tassajara Meadows and Roxbury neighborhoods of Dublin, 9 out of the 10 currently active/pending homes are foreclosures or short sales.  What contributed to this high percentage in the Tri-Valley?  It is my belief that it is directly related to the large number of homes purchased between 2005 and late 2007.  This was during a time period when home prices were at their highest and loans were being handed out with little scrutiny.  Despite the tightening of nationwide lending practices and the fact that we have seen a significant decrease in home prices, I still expect the percentage of short sales and foreclosures to continue at around the 40 to 50 percent range well into 2011. This is based on my current discussions with sellers and other Realtors around the area.

Secondly, interest rates have been at historic low levels for most of 2010.  Bankrate.com shows the current interest rate as of construction of this article at 4.96 percent.  I expect a slow and steady increase of rates to continue into 2011.  However, I have mixed feelings about how this will impact buyer demand.  First, I do believe that there are a number of individuals currently living in the Tri-Valley area who have only been accustomed to interest rates in the 4 and 5 percent range.  These individuals have relocated to the area from out of the country or have only become interested in home ownership in the last few years.  The fact that they have only experienced interest rates at these low levels will create a greater “sticker shock” as interest rates continue to rise in the future and may sideline many of these buyers in the short term.  However, once interest rates reach a certain higher level, it would seemingly have to put downward pressure on home prices.  If this is the case, prices will reach a point where buyers find values acceptable and will reenter the marketplace.

A third factor impacting the direction of the real estate market is the lender’s ability to lend.  For 2010, this really limited the ability of buyers to obtain loans and purchase housing inventory.  Right now, the requirements continue to be tight and my expectation is that this will continue through 2011.  I do expect some loosening to occur.  However, I do not believe it will be enough to help propel buyer demand.

A final factor is directly tied to inventory numbers across the Tri-Valley.  Over the last few months, we have seen a drop of inventory in the marketplace.  This is indicative of a normal trend for this time of the year. The starting number of active homes for 2011 is less than the last two years and is returning to starting numbers that we similarly had back in 2007 and 2008. I anticipate the drop-off in inventory to continue through the first few weeks in January.  After January, more inventory should hit the market, creating opportunities for prospective buyers.  The big question is how much inventory is waiting on the sidelines in the form of normal transactions and how much will come on as short sales/foreclosures.

Overall, I anticipate 2011 to have very similar characteristics to 2010. Regardless, transactions will happen and buyers will continue to seek out good values on homes. If you’d like to discuss your personal real estate situation, I am happy to speak with you about what I see in the market and help you strategize next best steps. Please contact me at 925.899.6103 or at adam@adamgolden.com.

In about three hours, we were staring out at the Merced River from our hotel room’s back patio. We stayed outside of the park (at Yosemite View Lodge-bonus points for an indoor pool!), and drove to the park in the morning. Yosemite is a definite winter wonderland, and the views we were lucky enough to experience were simply breathtaking.  We also had fun walking the Lower Yosemite Fall trail and playing in the snow at Curry Village. Yosemite was awe-inspiring, and we’re hoping to fit in another trip in 2011.

27th Annual Holiday Tree Lighting
Thursday, December 2, 7:00-8:30pm
Cost is Free. Fountain Plaza Area, Dublin Civic Center
The entire family can kick off the holiday season with entertainment and caroling while enjoying delicious cookies and hot chocolate. The Dublin Unified Elementary School Choir will perform and there will be a visit from Santa Claus.

Old Fashioned Holiday Workshop and Visit with Old St. Nick
Saturday, December 4, 2:00-4:00pm
$5 per person at the door
Photos with Old St. Nick: $5 each. Dublin Heritage Park and Museums
This is a hands-on workshop where you will be able to create memorable holiday gifts including orange pomanders, spiced pine cones, popcorn and cranberry garlands, and gingerbread ornaments. Festivities also include a holiday sing-along, cookies and hot cider. Old St. Nick will be on hand for visits and photographs.

Breakfast with Santa
Saturday, December 11
$6.50 Residents / $7.50 Non Residents. Shannon Community Center
Santa Claus is coming to town so you better be good and get your tickets to the annual Breakfast with Santa. Proceeds from this event directly benefit the Dublin High School Irish Guard Band Boosters. Pre-registration is required and there are several seating times available (8:30am / 9:45am / 11:00am). Don’t delay – this event always sells out!
$6.50 Residents / $7.50 Non Residents

Holiday Tea
Saturday, December 11, 12:30pm
Sunday, December 12, 12:30pm
$25 per person. Dublin Heritage Park and Museums
Treat yourself to a delicious luncheon served in the holiday glow of this historic setting. The menu includes finger sandwiches, savory sweets, tea and punch. Tables seat four, but larger parties can be accommodated. Pre-registration is required. Register early to avoid missing out.
Special Offer: Sign up for the Tea and Bay Bells Concert below for only $30 per person

Bay Bells Winter Concert
Sunday, December 12, 3:30pm
Dublin Senior Center
The Bay Bells annual appearance continues with their performance of Silver Bells. Bay Bells have been entertaining audiences throughout the country for the past 25 years and represent over 200 years of musical experience, featuring over 100 bells and chimes. It is true holiday entertainment the whole family will enjoy.
Adults: $10
Youth 12 and under: $5
Children 5 and under: $3

Letters from Santa
Do you know a child who would like to receive a personalized letter from Santa? Each letter will be personalized based on the information submitted on the Letters from Santa registration form. You may also attach a letter from the child to Santa with the registration form. Letters may also be requested online by clicking here. Requests must be received by December 8.
$6 Residents / $7 Non Residents

For more information about any of these events please call 556-4500 or visit www.DublinRecGuide.com.

Bankrate.com 

• 30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.58 percent
• 15 Year Fixed Rate: 3.97 percent
• 5/1 ARM (Adjustable): 3.66 percent

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association:

The answer is analogous to blowing up a balloon to its extreme.  More and more air fills the balloon until eventually the balloon pops letting out an explosion of air.  The only other option for the balloon is for someone to slowly let the air out.  The key is going to be in the management of how the banks distribute the foreclosure inventory to the marketplace once the moratorium is lifted.  If the banks disperse the foreclosures all at once or in heavy loads we can be in for a major impact to the housing market.  If the banks slowly roll out the foreclosures the immediate impact to the market might not be as great.  However, I believe this will only prolong the real estate market’s troubles for years to come.

On CNBC recently, former Fannie chairman and CEO Franklin Raines commented that loans that remain out there should be restructured “so that we can get out of this mess of people who are having a drag on the economy, a drag on confidence by consumers.”

“We need to have a major restructuring of the outstanding mortgages so that we can move forward with confidence and vigor,” Raines said.

This year, you can learn more about the man behind the “Miracle on the Hudson,” with 2010′s CityRead selection, Highest Duty: My Search for What Really Matters.  Highest Duty: My Search for What Really Matters is Captain Chesley “Sully” Sullenberger’s memoir.  Captain Sullenberger was the pilot of Flight 1549 with its emergency landing on the Hudson River in January, 2009. 

You can pick up your free paperback copy of Highest Duty: My Search for What Really Matters at the Danville or San Ramon Libraries or at participating local businesses.

There are also two special CityRead events:

The International Group for Historic Aircraft Recovery (TIGHAR) Expeditions including the Amelia Earhart Project

Thursday, September  30^th, 7PM
Mt. Diablo Room, Danville Library
No registration required, but seating is limited and available on a first-come, first-seated basis.

CityRead Closing Event and Book Signing with Captain “Sully” Sullenberger

Wednesday, October 20^th, 7PM
Dougherty Valley Performing Arts Center
10550 Albion Road, San Ramon

Reserve your seat at 925-973-ARTS(2787) or www.sanramonperformingarts.com beginning on September 14^th only. Tickets are free, but must be reserved prior to the event. Two tickets per person, and you must arrive 10 minutes before the event. 

Click on the following link for more detailed special event information and more information on this year’s CityRead.

This will be fun for the whole family.  The event will be held on September 11th and 12th.

Activities include:

• Nature based arts and crafts
• Nature hike led by a Naturalist
• Games and crafts
• A campfire with s’mores
• Music, dinner and breakfast.

If you decide to attend, please bring the following:

• Tent & sleeping bags
• Chairs
• Flashlight
• Personal refillable water bottle, snacks, change of clothes & personal items

Check-in 3:00pm • Activities begin at 4:30pm • Check-out Sunday 10:00am

The cost is $15 per person for Dublin residents and $17 for non-residents.
Registration is underway (use Activity Number 24833).

PLEASE, NO PETS
For more information please call 556-4500. To register go online to www.DublinRecGuide.com or visit the Shannon Community Center, Monday through Friday 8:00 a.m. to 5:00 p.m.

Bankrate.com 

• 30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.66 percent
• 30 Year Fixed Rate Jumbo: 5.34 percent
• 15 Year Fixed Rate: 4.11 percent
• 5/1 ARM (Adjustable): 3.95 percent
• 1 Year ARM (Adjustable): 4.80 percent 

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association:

• Mortgage applications rose 1.3 percent when compared to a week earlier
• Refinance applications shot up 1.3 percent when compared to a week earlier
• Applications for new purchases increased 1.5 percent

According to the National Association of Realtors:

• Pending home sales fell 2.6 percent in June when compared to a month earlier
• Sales were also down 18.6 percent year over year.

Bankrate.com 

• 30 Year Fixed Rate: 4.74 percent
• 30 Year Fixed Rate Jumbo: 5.48 percent
• 15 Year Fixed Rate: 4.22 percent
• 5/1 ARM (Adjustable): 4.06 percent
• 1 Year ARM (Adjustable): 4.79 percent 

According to the Mortgage Bankers Association:

• Mortgage applications rose 6.7 percent when compared to a week earlier
• Refinance applications shot up 9 percent and are at 13-month highs
• Applications for new purchase dipped 2 percent

According to the National Association of Realtors:

• Pending home sales fell 30 percent in May when compared to a month earlier
• Sales were also down 15.9 percent year over year.

We called ahead for reservations and learned that you can reserve a table for dinner and work in a quick wine tasting beforehand at the within-walking-distance Vineyard Tasting Room.  Thinking that sounded like a great evening, it quickly became our anniversary plan.  We thought to have about an hour to taste right before dinner, since the Vineyard Tasting Room closes at 6:30 PM. Great plan, but we got there behind schedule, leaving us a very short amount of time to taste.  Our wine server saved the day by suggesting we share a flight, which worked out really well.  We shared the Nth Degree flight for around $10 and each had several sips of some nice wines. A perfect way to start out any anniversary dinner. 

Even the two minute walk to and from the parking lot between the Tasting Room and the Restaurant was nice due to the beautiful wedding taking place on the grounds.  The scene was serene, with the Restaurant’s patio humming with patrons enjoying the sun-soaked early evening. 

My wife and I both feel that the service that night was excellent.  From the host/manager who sat us to our waiter with his knowledgeable recommendations, we really got the impression that the restaurant was infused with class and elegance simply by their skilled delivery.  Our food was wonderful, including a Mary’s Farm chicken dish and a recommended pan stew.  Even the bread and butter brought at the beginning of the meal were notable, including a light sprinkle of salt on the butter.  My wife said that the word “fresh” kept coming to her mind, with the veggies being a consistent standout.  We had a fritto misto appetizer that was crunchy and light (even though fried), however both of us felt that there was a mysterious fried item (was it lemon slices?) that created an odd flavor.  We also ordered a side dish of baby artichokes that was a nice accompaniment.  Sweetly, Wente created an assorted cookie/truffle plate for us spelling out a chocolatey “Happy Anniversary!”  It’s the little things that make all the difference.

At the end of this special evening, more magic wafted around our table as a well-meaning, older couple leaned over and expressed that we must always remember how important it is to fit alone time into the daily hectic schedule of young family life.  Agreed.  And this night was so memorable that it will be a bookmark in our lives, serving as that important reminder.  Thanks, Wente.

A few years back, my family and I started a vegetable garden project.  We have just a wee bit of space in our backyard where we plant vegetables and herbs.  The kids get a kick out of it, and my wife loves to use the “fruit” of our labors in her cooking.  We’ve come to realize that our tiny garden (and our novice gardening skills) really delivers in a few varieties, but is not so stellar at more.  We can do tomatoes, peppers and herbs successfully, and unfortunately not much else.  So, in preparation for this year’s crop, I thought it might be smart to look for a few classes that would help us be more successful backyard gardeners. 

Here’s a sampling of gardening classes coming up this spring in the Tri-Valley, including Danville, Livermore, Pleasanton and San Ramon:

Navlet’s in Danville: http://www.navletsgardens.com/2010-classes.html
Soil Preparation Basics (mini-class): Saturday 3/6 at 11 AM
Berries, Berries, Berries with Buzz Bertolero, The Dirt Gardener: Saturday 3/13 at 2 PM
Edible Gardens (mini-class): Saturday 4/3 at 11 AM and 3 PM
Just Tomatoes with Buzz Bertolero, The Dirt Gardener: Saturday 4/10 at 2 PM

Alden Lane in Livermore: http://aldenlane.com/alnsclass.html
Get Ready to Vegetable Garden, Saturday 3/27 at 10AM
Herb & Vegetable Pot Planting, Saturday 4/17 at 10 AM

Western Garden Nursery in Pleasanton: http://westerngardennursery.com/
Vegetable Gardening/Soil Preparation, Saturday 3/6 at 10AM
Vegetable Gardening/Soil Preparation, Sunday 3/7 at 1 PM

San Ramon Library in San Ramon:
Glorious Gardens in San Ramon – Starting a Spring Garden,
with Janet Miller, Contra Costa Master Gardener
Saturday, March 13, 2-4 PM

We all spend a lot of time indoors, whether it is in our own Tri-Valley homes or at our place of business.  Most people don’t realize that often the air inside our home could be more of a problem that the air we are breathing outdoors.  This is especially true during the winter time when opening your windows becomes more of an infrequent event.

An article by Consumer Reports magazine, goes on to list a variety of sources that cause indoor air pollution and ways to reduce their negative impact. I have listed some of those below from the article.

Problem Sources:

• The fireplace
• Air fresheners
• A shedding cat or dog
• Dusty furniture
• Aerosol spray
• Dust mites in bedding
• A poorly ventilated kitchen range

Solutions:

• To discourage dust mites, encase your pillows, mattresses, and box springs in dust-mite-proof covers. Wash very dirty or dusty laundry in the hottest water.
• Ventilate – Cooking, cleaning, using hair spray, and polishing your nails can release volatile organic compounds that are linked to a variety of health problems. Use exhaust hoods or fans in the kitchen and bathroom to reduce your exposure and minimize humidity that can cause mold and mildew. Before you use your fireplace, make sure the flue damper is wide open. Poor ventilation can allow pollutants to stay in the air.
• Eliminate Odors – Find the source of bad smells and clean it up. Using a box of baking soda in the area instead of air fresheners makes more sense.  Air fresheners cost more and can contain VOCs and phthalates.
• Clean Effectively – Because dust can harbor pollen, pet dander, bacteria, mites, mold, and mildew, dust furnishings regularly with a damp rag or an electrostatically charged duster. Vacuum often.
• Control Pets and Critters – Seal cracks and crevices and put food away. You’ll be less apt to attract pests and need to use pesticides. To minimize your exposure to pet dander, don’t allow pets to hang around slleping areas and on furniture.

• Bake a cake together for Washington’s Birthday. She was thinking of a box cake mix with an American flag in frosting and just possibly berries or sprinkles, but check out this blog’s intense listing of presidentially-inspired desserts.
• Visit the Whitehouse’s site for kids. This is an informative site with loads of information. Her best bets for kid appeal are the following: the White House/Presidents, the White House/First Ladies, Photos & Videos (especially Photo Galleries (there’s a real cute one of Bo in the snow!), and the White House/Air Force One.
• Peruse the website for George Washington’s Mount Vernon Estate & Gardens, especially under the Learn tab. There are some very cool facts and photos for the kids to view, as well as just plain fun games and puzzles under Washington’s World for Kids.

I thought it might be helpful to research some of the restaurants in the Tri-Valley that offer Kids Eat Free deals.  To do this, I went online and found that there are whole websites devoted to Kids Eat Free finding.  You can just plug in your zip code or choose a city near you and the website displays Kids Eat Free deals based on your search. A lot of these deals are marketed via word of mouth, so it can be a hunt of sorts to discover them.

At the time of writing this article, the restaurants that I discovered offering Kids Eat Free deals around the Tri-Valley are: Carrows in Dublin (Wednesday & Thursday (4PM-Close)), Chevy’s  in San Ramon, Pleasanton and Livermore (Tuesday), Denny’s in Danville and Pleasanton (Tuesday and Saturday (5PM-10PM)), IHOP in Dublin (Tuesday & Thursday (4PM-9PM)), Marie Callendar’s in San Ramon (Tuesday & Saturday), Izzy’s Steaks and Chops in San Ramon (Sunday & Monday) and Pasta Pomodoro in San Ramon (Tuesday). For all of these restaurants, you must pay for an adult entrée to get a kid’s meal off of the Kids’ Menu for free (at Denny’s you can have up to two kids’ meals free per paid adult entrée). The Kids Eat Free deal age limit is usually based on the age of the restaurants’ Kids’ Menu and some restaurants have time frames etc., so, be sure to call ahead to confirm their Kids Eat Free deal is still on and to understand of all of its requirements and “fine print.”