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A Look Back at Homes Sold in the Tri-Valley Area

In addition to my usual data reviews, at the end of every year I like to pull interesting sets of real estate data points.  This year, I was interested in identifying trends reflected in the number of homes sold in the Tri-Valley over the last several years.  I began by extracting data using the Multiple Listing Service that I have access to as a Broker Associate.  I settled on examining 10 years worth of data for a decent amount of time to look at trends. As my area of specialty includes the Tri-Valley, I pulled data for all of the Tri-Valley cities including Danville, Dublin, Livermore, Pleasanton, and San Ramon.

As a high-level overview, most 2008 Home Sales data points have ended up far below their second lowest yearly total in the last ten years, 2001.  At first glance, Dublin and even San Ramon’s Homes Sold yearly totals have held up seemingly well.  However, when thinking about the trends more deeply, it is clear that I would also need to take into account population increases in each city over a similar timeframe.  So, this got me started digging into population data for our Tri-Valley cities.  Here is a table portraying population data I reviewed:

* data retrieved from bayareacensus.ca.gov
** data retrieved from eastbayeda.org

Now, I know that these population data numbers are not from the exact same timeframe as my Home Sold data points, but they are within the same timeframe and can be a good reference.  As you can see from this chart, Dublin is the clear population growth winner, with San Ramon in second place.  So, in terms of the Homes Sold chart, Dublin and San Ramon have had big-time population growth (Dublin Ranch and Windemere in particular), which may explain why both Dublin and San Ramon’s Homes Sold totals for 2008 are close to what they were in 1999. I will be watching Dublin and San Ramon’s Homes Sold totals in the next several years to see if their Homes Sold curve will become more in line with the rest of the Tri-Valley cities. 

It is also interesting to note that Danville grew the least in population between 2000 and 2007, with Pleasanton as a close second.  Possibly congruently, while Danville and Pleasanton had the least amount of population growth during this time, both cities also had the largest drops from a strictly Homes Sold perspective from 1999 to 2008.  In 2008, Danville had 66% less homes sell than back in 1999.  Also in 2008, Pleasanton had 60% less homes sell than in 1999. For perspective, Livermore’s percentage is 43%, San Ramon’s is 30% and Dublin’s is 7% for the same statistic. (See 10 Year Trend for Tri-Valley Cities graph located above.)

As you can see when viewing the Homes Sold chart, most of the Tri-Valley cities took on a very similar linear pattern.  Here are some more specific trends within the pattern:

• Every city had a large drop in 2001, with Dublin and San Ramon as the only two cities that have not dropped a large amount past their 2001 Homes Sold data points by 2008.
• Dublin and Livermore showed an increase in the number of homes sold from 2002 to 2004.  Since 2005, the number of sold homes has declined each year.
• San Ramon showed an increase in the number of homes sold from 2002 to 2003.  Since 2004, the number of sold homes has declined each year.

I find it interesting to see the drop in sold homes from 2004 to 2005 to be larger than the drop from 2007 to 2008 for all Tri-Valley cities, however some cities by a larger percentage than others.  Last year, we all felt and heard so much about the residential real estate bubble bursting, and it is interesting to note that the decline in home sold from 2007 to 2008 was smaller in our Tri-Valley cities than a few years previously. 

Please share your thoughts with me on all of this data digging.  It is definitely interesting for me to analyze, and I hope you find it similarly thought-provoking.  If you disagree with the interpretation or the analysis, please share that with me, as well.  As always, I will continue pulling data with the hope of increased awareness and trend spotting.

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